知觉与学习——从决策理论看当前中美经贸合作中的认知误区

Perception and Learning——Analysis on Mistaken Recognition in Current China-US Cooperation in Economy and Trade based on Decision-making Theory

本文突破经济人偏好不变的经典假设,将知觉与学习等决策理论的有关概念引入中美经贸合作研究,对当前中美经贸合作的认知误区进行了分析。本文认为,由于人自身认知的局限性和外部结构性因素的制约,决策者和研究者也会经常出现错误知觉,并且不能通过学习迅速纠正这些错误知觉和预防新的错误知觉的形成,致使认识到合作利益或具有合作愿望的国家间不能顺利实现合作,有时甚至走向冲突。有悖于事实的负面观念在某种程度上阻止了合作的外溢与扩展。

This paper makes a breakthrough in classical presumption that preference of economic person keeps constant. It introduces relative concepts of decision-making theory such as perception and learning into the study of China-US cooperation in economy and trade. It analyzes the mistaken reeognition in current China-US cooperation in economy and trade. It asserts that due to the limitations of their own recognition and restrictions of external structural factors, decision-makers and researchers also frequently have mistaken perception even if they are the wisest. By way of learning, they cannot promptly correct the mistaken perception and prevent the emergence of new mistaken perception, which has made the countries unable to cooperate smoothly and sometimes even in conflict though the concerning countries realize the cooperative benefits or have cooperative wish. The negative notion contrary to the faets has caused an adverse effect in varied degrees during the process of US economic and trade policies against China, which has prevented the spillover and spread of cooperation in a certain degree.