区域性矿产资源开发系统发展规划优化模型及其系统经济评价

OPTIMIZATION AND ECONOMIC EVALUATION MODELS FOR REGIONAL MINERAL RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT PLANNING SYSTEM

区域性矿产资源的勘查开发活动是受多种因素影响的多目标系统,研究这类系统的优化与经济评价问题是矿产经济学领域的重要课题。本文以宜昌地区磷矿资源开发规划为例,应用系统工程的观点和方法通过系统分析建立优化模型,借助于微机模拟出4套优化系统方案,并利用最新研制的系统经济评价微机软件对这些开发方案进行了总体经济效益评价。

In the past few years, the studies on the optimization techniques of a singleobjective system and project economic evaluation methods have made great advances. However, how to solve the optimization problems of multiple-and-conflicting-goal system?How to perform system analysis at the regional mineral development leve, and now to conduct a total economic evaluation of such a system? This paper focuses on the rather satisfying answer of these questions. The Yichang regional phosphate rock deposits development planning system, as a study case, is illustrated in detail. The whole process of mineral resources development, in the opinion of the authors, can be thought of as a complex engineering system of conversing mineral reserves into economically usable commodities, which involves a chain of a wide range of activities in exploration, development, beneficiation, transportation, etc. and is influenced by all kinds of factors inside and outside the system. As a result of a system analysis, it is thought that three goals need to be reached in the system in discussion. In terms of the nature of the system problems, a mathematical model based on the goal programming technique is developed to optimize the planning system. Based upon the studies on the algorithm for the model solution, the concepts of 'priority level' and 'deviation variable' are applied in the model. With the help of microcomputer, four alternative planning seenarioes are formated corresponding to the four predetermined expected objective levels.In the optimization model, only one economic indicator is chosen to consider the profitablity of the planning system owing to the limitations of the model solution techniques. So the system economic evaluation model (SEM) is developed to comprehensively study the economic feasibility of the optimal planning scenarioes. Besides, sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify how much the changes in key parameters impact on the system.The above two models will provide the information concerning three types of indicators——production, needed investment and profitability of the optimal planning system——and concerning the optimal system structure for the decision makers' reference.