淮河上游洪水灾害可公度信息系预测

A FORECAST OF FLOOD DISASTER IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE HUAIHE RIVER WITH COMMENSURABILITY INFORMATION SYSTEM

可公度信息系是一种源于天文学的预测方法，其实质是寻求事物发生的经验关系。本文应用此法对淮河上游的洪水灾害进行了预测分析，结果表明淮河上游洪水灾害发生具有２ａ、４ａ、５ａ、７ａ、９ａ、１１ａ、１９ａ及７１ａ等多种周期，并在１９９７年、２０００年等年份的前后有可能发生大洪水。

Commensurability information system is a forecasting method originated from astronomy, of which the substance is finding the empirical relations of thing's occurrence. This paper made a forecasting analyses on the flood disaster in the upper reaches of the Huaihe River. The results show different periods of flood disaster in the upper reaches of the Huaihe River, such as 2, 4, 5, 7, 9, 11, 19 and 71 years, and it is possible that the flood would take place around 1997 and 2000.