青海湖水位年际变化规律的分析和预测

ANALYSIS AND FORECAST FOR INTERANNUAL VARIATION OF THE QINGHAI LAKES WATER LEVEL

利用青海湖沙陀寺水文站１９５９—１９９２年的水位资料，分析了前期气候类型、北太平洋海温、厄尔尼诺事件以及北极海冰对湖水位年际变化的影响，得到了一些有预报价值的因子。

Based on Shatuosi hydrologic stations data from 1959 through 1992,the influence of antecedent climatic type,SST of the North Pacific Ocean,Arctic sea ice and El Nino event on the interannual variation of the Qinghai Lakes water level is analyzed The valuable results can be used to forecast the three states for next years water level variation by using Bayers successive discrimination method