NCEP温度图像与天体引潮力附加构造应力结合作地震短临预测初探——以2003年7—8月3次西藏地震为例

A PRELIMINARY STUDY ON THE USE OF NCEP TEMPERATURE IMAGES AND ASTRO-TIDAL-TRIGGERING TO FORECAST SHORT-IMPENDING EARTHQUAKE

利用美国国家环境预测中心NCEP全球再分析资料的温度图像结合天体引潮力附加构造应力,对2003年5月以来的国内MS≥6.0、国外MS≥7.0的地震作了统计分析。以2004年7月12日—2004年8月25日间西藏地区3次地震为例得出如下认识:NCEP温度异常图像可以较好地反映短临地震构造活动时空演变过程;天体引潮力附加构造应力对地应力处于临界状态的活动断层具有明显的诱发作用;利用NCEP温度异常图像与天体引潮力附加构造应力结合进行地震短临预测是具有良好应用前景的新思路;西藏的3次地震均发生在天体引潮力附加构造应力周期相同的相位上,即天体引潮力附加构造应力变化达到相对稳定的峰值的末端,而不是发生在天体引潮力附加构造应力最大时刻,同时2003—2004年在西藏发生的其它震例中,地震发生在上述周期相同的相位,因此认为应当对其它区域更长时间更多的震例作这方面的进一步研究。

Taking the three earthquakes which occurred in Xizang of China during the period of July 12 to August 25, 2004 as an example, the paper analyses the Ms≥36.0 earthquakes that occurred in China and Ms≥37.0 earthquakes that occurred in overseas since May of 2003 by combining the image data of National Centers for Environmental Prediction of America with the astro-tidal-triggering and makes the following conclusions： The temperature abnormal image data of NCEP can better reflect the spatialtime evolution process of tectonic earthquake activity; The keep pace with the dynamic state of temperature abnormal change of astro-tidal-triggering can better images; The astro-tidal-triggering has an evident triggering effect on the active fault where the terrestrial stress is in critical status; It is a new thinking to use the NCEP images and the astro-tidal-triggering to forecast short-impending earthquake ; The three earthquakes occurred during the same phase of the respective astro-tidal-triggering （ATSA） additive tectonic stress cycle, i.e. occurring at the time when the ATSA reached the relatively steady end of peak, rather than the time when the variation rate was maximal. Meantime, the author discovered that the occurrence time of other earthquake cases during 2003--2004 in Xizang was also in the same phase of the above-mentioned cycles, and therefore, further study of this feature is needed with more earthquake cases in other areas over longer periods of time.