快速城市化过程中城市用地扩展驱动力研究

A Study on Driving Force of Urban Land Expansion during Rapid Urbanization

采用统计资料,利用SPSS(S tatistics Package for Soc ia l Sc ience)软件,对福建省1990年以来城市用地动态变化的影响因子进行主成分分析,并对城市人口变化、经济增长和城市环境改善等3个主要影响因子的内在作用机制进行了偏相关分析.结果表明,自1990年以来,福建省城市建成区面积呈直线上升趋势,年平均扩展速度约为24.38 km2.线性回归分析结果表明,福建省城市用地的扩展与城市人口和GDP增长都存在高度正相关关系;进一步通过对城市用地、城市人口和GDP三者进行偏相关分析发现,GDP增长更能解释城市用地的扩展,经济增长是城市用地扩展最为根本的驱动因子.随着社会经济发展和居民收入的增加,人们对城市居住环境的要求不断提高,也成为促进城市对土地需求的重要因素.

Based on principal components analysis, partial correlation and regression approaches using SPSS （Statistics Package for Social Science）, this essay analyses the processes of urban expansion and quantifies its relationship with economics development and population growth from 1990 to 2002 in Fujian Province. The results show that the total urban land areas are linearly increased from 1990, and highly related to the growth of GDP, urban population and land requirement for the improvement of urban environment. During the last 13 years, the land areas of urban built-up area annually go up in the speed of about 24.83 km^2. Development of economics can better explain the expansion of urban land use than urban population through partial correlation. The economy development is the most important driving factor on the urban land expansion; it can not only directly drive the expansion of urban land use, but also indirectly affect it through urban population growth and urban environment changing.