我国粮食安全模式探析

An Exploration on the Model of Grain Safety in China

基于我国土地和水资源状况和我国农业投入成本和效益分析,我国未来粮食的自我保证能力有限。同时分析世界粮食的供求、我国外汇能力和我国粮食进口对世界粮食市场的影响,目前国内粮食生产的成本已经很高,粮食进口尚有一定的上升空间。因此结合我国的特殊国情,我国的粮食保障应选择适度进口的“双保险”粮食安全模式。

This paper holds that the grain safety dependence on domestic production is limited in view of the scare water and land resources and the high cost of grain safety in China.It is possible to import grain for such reasons as follows, the supply and demand condition in world grain market, the enough foreign currency reserves in China, the strategy of Chinese import grain impact on the world grain market. The paper emphasizes the large capacity of Chinese grain import through the analysis on the large amount of statistical data. Considering the current conditions in China, the paper puts forward the model of double - insurance grain safety based on domestic supply and proper import.