货币政策的粘性均衡汇率效应模型及人民币汇率定价的弹性分析

Sticky Equilibrium Exchange Effect Model of Monetary Policy and Elastic Analysis on Pricing of RMB Exchange

本文以开放的宏观经济为框架、以厂商利润最大化为微观经济基础、以严格的数学推导为逻辑纽带、以粘性价格为理论依据、以购买力平价的微分冲击形式为理论基础，提出并构建了两国货币政策的粘性均衡汇率效应模型。应用模型，本文对1992～2002年的人民币粘性均衡汇率进行了定价，并对2003年的定价进行了预测。以定价汇率及其预测为标准，对1992～2003年的人民币汇率偏离与经常性项目的关系，进行了弹性分析。根据模型与实证分析，获得了一些重要结论。

The paper puts forward and constructs a Sticky Equilibrium Exchange Rate Effect Model （SEEREM） by using open economy as the macroeconomic framework, profit maximization of manufacturers as microeconomic foundation, strict mathematical deduction as logic link, Dornbusch＇s sticky price as ideological guideline, differential impact form of Purchasing Power Parity as theoretical foundation. The paper sets the price for the equilibrium exchange rates for conversion from RMB to US dollars from 1992 to 2002, and predicts the pricing of 2003 by using the SEEREM for the conversion from RMB to US dollars. Using it as standard, the paper conducts elasticity analysis on the relationship of market exchange rate deviation and current account from 1992 to 2003. The paper acquires some important conclusions from the SEEREM.