中国工业行业的面板数据构造及资本深化评估:1985~2003

Construction of Panel Data of China's Industries and Evaluation on It's Capital Deepening: 1985~2003

本文通过比较分析以前的研究，在对指标的选取、数据折算和数据衔接做了详细说明的基础上，构造了中国39个工业行业的投入产出面板数据。数据分析发现，工业行业的增加值、资本存量、劳动生产率和资本装备率都有大幅增长，但职工人数和资本生产率有不同程度的下降。GDP增长的加速与工业部门产出份额增加有显著的正相关关系。1994～1999年间，中国工业部门确实发生了“不利的”资本深化，但这一趋势并没有在1999年后延续。中国在1991～1995年和1999～2003年两个阶段有工业重化化趋势，而且到2003年重化化趋势并没有停止的迹象。

This paper, through comparative analysis on former relative studies, constructs input- output panel data of China＇s 39 industries, on the base of detail explanation on the choice of indicators, data evaluation methods and data continuity. We find industries＇ value- added, capital stock, labor productivities and capital -labor ratio have increased greatly, but worker＇s populations and capital productivities have decreased to various extend. There is a significant positive relation between the fluctuation of GDP growth and the increment of proportion of industry output. From 1994 to 1999, ＂adverse＂ capital deepening did occur in China＇s industry, but the trend has stopped since 1999. Also, China saw industrial heavilization and chemicalization trends in two periods, from 1991 to 1995 and from 1999 to 2003, and no sign indicates the trend would end in 2003.