投影寻踪自回归模型和应变积累释放模型在新疆地震趋势预测中的应用

Application of Project Pursuit Auto-regression Model and Strain Accumulating and Releasing Model to Earthquake Trend Prediction in Xinjiang

本研究以5年为时间窗,1年为滑动步长构建自变量序列,建立了新疆各研究区的投影寻踪自回归中长期地震预测模型;同时应用应变积累释放模型探讨了各区不同时段应变积累与释放特征,依据各区的应变积累水平及其地震活动分期特征判定未来地震趋势。综合分析两个模型的地震趋势预测意见,给出了新疆各研究区未来5年(2006-2010年)的地震危险性判定意见。

A mid-long term earthquake prediction model is formed using project pursuit auto-regression model, with independent variable sequence in 5 years of time window and 1 year of time interval, for different study regions of Xinjiang. Meanwhile the characters of strain accumulation and release during different periods in the study regions are discussed with strain accumulating and releasing model, and the future seismic trend are judged according to strain accumulating level and period character of seismieity in the study regions. Afer synthetically analyzing both seismic trend conclusions from two models, the earthquake hazard judgment within future 5 years （2006-2010） for every study regions in Xinjiang are given.