广东省猪伪狂犬病时间分布和空间分布的研究

Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Pseudorabies Prevalence in Guangdong Province

为了研究猪伪狂犬病(PR)的流行病学,对1998—2004年间广东省PR血清流行的时间和空间分布进行了调查.结果表明:东莞、惠州、深圳、阳江、珠海的PR血清阳性率较高(>20%),清远和汕尾地区最少(<10%),最高地区是最低地区的3.82倍.有51.7%猪场血清阳性率分布在10%以下.PR血清流行在时间序列有每隔5个月出现1个峰值的可能(P>0.05).通过AR IMA模型预测,2005年1月广东省的PR血清阳性率为14.23%,与真实值15.06%符合得较好.时间-空间对应分析表明:2002、2003年为珠江三角洲PR流行的高峰期,粤北在2001年为高发年份;2002、2003年,PR的流行率均以粤东为最低.二维对应分析图概括了原始信息量的83.3%.

To study the epidemiology of pseudorabies（ PR）, the investigation of temporal and spatial distribution of pseudorabies（PR）were conducted in Guangdong Province from 1998 to 2004. The seropositive rates of PR were higher （ 〉 20% ） in Dongguan, Huizhou, Shenzhen, Yangjiang, Zhuhai, and lower （ 〈 10% ） in Qingyuan and Shantou. The highest was 3.82 times as much as the lowest. The seropositive rates of 51.7% pig farms were less than 10%. In temporal distribution, a peak of PR seroprevalence may appear every 5 months. Forecast by ARIMA model revealed that seropositive rate in Jan 2005 may be 14.23% approaching the true value 15.06%. Analysis of spatial-temporal correspondence showed that the high seroprevalence of PR for Pearl River Delta appeared in 2002 and 2003, for the north in 2001. In 2002 and 2003, the low seroprevalence of PR were observed in the east. Two-dimension chart covered 83.3% original information