对中国国际贸易与FDI相互关系的重新检验

A Retest of Linkages Between International Trade and FDI in China

自从Mundell(1957)首次正式探讨国际贸易和FDI(外国直接投资)之间的关系并提出“替代模型”以来,已有众多学者相继提出了“互补关系论”、“不确定性关系论”和“一体化关系论”等各种其他理论。为检验国际贸易与FDI相互关系在中国的实际情况,本文采用协整检验的方法,分别运用外资企业数据、全国数据以及江苏省数据重新检验了国际贸易与FDI之间的长期相互关系。实证结果表明,外资企业的国际贸易与FDI之间存在长期稳定的相互促进关系,基于全国数据的国际贸易与FDI之间没有相互促进关系,基于江苏省数据的国际贸易和FDI之间只具有单向促进作用。本文在解释上述实证结果原因的基础上,给出了相关结论和启示。

After Robert Mundell advanced the ＂ Substitutability Model＂ towards the linkages between foreign direct investment（FDI） and foreign trade in 1957, many scholars have raised a variety of other models in this field including complementarity model and others. This paper empirically studies the long-term linkages between international trade and FDI from the perspective of foreign company data, data of the whole country and data of Jiangsu Province respectively by using cointegration test, and the results show that there have been two-way linkages between FDI and imports ＆ exports activities concerning foreign companies, while there have been no bilateral linkages between the two in terms of the whole country, and FDI has greatly promoted the imports and exports activities in Jiangsu Province. This paper gives the explanations for the above empirical test results and draws conclusions.