高油价影响下的我国燃料油市场——上海燃料油期货上市两周年回顾与展望

Chinese Fuel Oil Market under High Oil Prices——Second Anniversary of the Listing of the Shanghai Fuel Oil Futures

在高油价等因素的影响下,我国燃料油的贸易品种、市场结构、用户结构发生了较大的变化:地方小炼厂对直馏燃料油的需求增加,直馏油成为我国进口燃料油的主要品种,从韩国和俄罗斯等国的进口数量大幅增加;山东作为地方炼厂发展较快的省份,在进口燃料油中所占份额增加;传统行业的燃料油消费明显减少,船用燃料油需求因海运业的发展而增长;国内市场燃料油价格与新加坡价格经常“倒挂”,上海燃料油期货成为重要的价格风险管理手段。上海燃料油期货自2004年8月25日在上海期货交易所成功上市以来,交易日趋活跃,市场运行平稳,期货价格与国内外现货价格形成联动,燃料油的“中国价格”和“中国标准”越来越得到国际认同,为我国下一步开展石油期货进行了有益的探索。我国应总结燃料油期货运作的成功经验,促进现有品种的不断完善和交易的进一步活跃,研究开发液化气等多种期货品种,完善期货市场规则,增强我国在国际石油商品定价方面的话语权。

Recent high oil prices have brought dramatic changes to fuel oil portfolios, the market structure and the user space in China. Small local refineries have higher demand for straight- run fuel oil - one of the major fuel oils imported by China, increasingly from South Korea and Russia over recent years. Shandong, where local refineries have proliferated, has a correspondingly big demand for imported fuel oil. However, fuel oil consumption by traditional industries keeps declining, while the demand for bunkers is rising along with growth in the sea shipping industry. The fuel oil price in the domestic market is often inconsistent with the price in Singapore, necessitating the Shanghai fuel oil futures as an important tool for price risk management. Since Shanghai fuel oil futures were listed at the Shanghai Futures Exchange on August 25, 2004, the transaction volume has kept growing, and the futures price is increasingly linked with spot prices at home and abroad, establishing a 'Chinese price and standard' for fuel oil that is increasingly being recognized in the global market. China should build upon its successful experience in fuel oil futures to perfect the futures market rules, to keep broadening the range of products available and expanding the transaction volume to include futures for crude oil, gasoline, diesel oil and LNG, and increase China's input in oil product pricing in the global market.