日本对华舆情变动的深层分析

The Profound Causes of the Changing Japanese Attitude toward China

近十余年来,日本民众对华感情日趋恶化。这种状况的出现固然是多重复合因素使然,而其中重要的一个因素无疑是受到日本对华舆情变动的深刻影响。若将分析的触角深入到日本的社会传播领域,并以受众的社会心理、媒体造势和“意见领袖”的议题导向三大基本要素作为建立舆情分析的逻辑框架,通过对相关变量的深入分析后不难发现:导致上述状况的深层原因是由于中日实力对比的长消造成了两国国家行为体互动模式的变化。日本对华舆情的变动,其实质乃是国际体系结构的变动在日本国内社会传播领域的一种折射反映。

In the recent ten years or so, the attitudes of Japanese nationals toward China have increasingly deteriorated. This is certainly attributed to multiple factors, but one most important factor is undoubtedly the changing feelings of the Japanese public toward China. Analytically, if we deeply examine the area of social communications in Japan, and establish a logical analytical framework of public feelings, incorporating such three basic elements as the socio-psychology of recei￣vers, media claim-making, and agenda-setting by opinion leaders, and conduct an in-depth analysis of relevant variants, it is not difficult to realize that the profound causes for the above situation are the changes in the mode of interaction between the two behavioral entities due to the growth and decline of relative strength between Japan and China. Changes in Japanese public feelings toward China are in essence a reflection of changes of the international system in the social communications sector of Japan.