“五普”人口总量和结构的分析与调整

Regulation and Analysis on Population Quantity and Structure of the Fifth Census

以人口普查资料为基础,运用人口存活分析方法和数值拟合思想,并辅之以其他统计数据和对比分析方法,分析五普数据中的重报和漏报,对普查人口总量和结构进行调整。研究发现,“五普”0-9岁人口存在漏报,漏报人口为3 743万;而10-60岁人口存在重报,重报人口为1 134万人;最终调整五普人口总数为127 120万,普查人口漏报率为2.05%。

Based on data from censuses, applying survival analysis and numerical fitting method, as well as other statistics and contrast analysis, the paper explores underreporting and overreporting in the 2000 census and adjusts the population size and structure. It is found that there are 37.43 million unregistered children aged from 0 to 9 and 11.34 million people re - registered aged from 10 to 60. The total population in the fifth census reaches 1 271.2 million and rate of underreporting is 2. 05%.