摘要
利用EViews计量工具和运用时间序列动态分析方法,在云南省1978～2003年的宏观经济数据的基础上,通过对经济变量的走势分析、平稳性检验、协整性检验,并对模型进行估计,建立了国内生产总值、消费,投资,出口四个变量之间的长期均衡关系和短期均衡关系,得出云南省是消费拉动型经济的结论,揭示了消费对于云南经济增长的重要意义。
By using the measurement tool of Eviews and the dynamic analyzing method of time sequence, the author sets up long - term and short - term equivalent relationships between the variations of GDP, expense, investment, and export through the analysis of the change of economic variations, stability test, co - integration test, and the evaluation of models based on the macroeconomy of Yunnan province from 1978 to 2003. The author gets the conclusion s that the economy of Yunnan province belongs to consumptive stipulation which discovers the importance of expense to the province.
出处
《云南财经大学学报》
2006年第5期68-73,共6页
Journal of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics
关键词
经济增长
国内生总值
时间序列
协整
检验
Economic Growth
GDP
Time Sequence
Co - integration Test
Test
