地方政府债务风险防范研究——基于发达地区政府债务的样本分析

The Fesearch of Local Government Debts Risk Preventing——Sample Analysis of Government Debts in Developed Area

地方政府债务是政府债务管理中极为敏感的话题。为正确认识发达地区政府的债务风险,进而有效防范地方政府债务风险,笔者选取发达地区某市的地方政府债务数据作为样本进行分析,认为该市的债务具有隐性化、或有化、投资性和公共性并存的特征,而其债务风险并不在于财务风险、挤出风险、金融风险、经济风险等,而在于由于制度和组织设计造成的管理风险。据此,笔者从债务制度供给、债务需要约束和地方债务管理三方面提出了防范地方政府债务风险的政策建议。

The local government debts management is a sensitive topic among the government debts management. In order to get the appropriate consideration to the debts risk of the developed area government, and to prevent the local government debts risk effectively, the author select the debts data of a local government in a developed area as the sample. According to the Hanna＇s debts table, the author considered that the characters of this city＇s debts were potential, contingent, investment and publicly. And, the real debts risk was not the fiscal risk, crowding--out risk, financial obligation or economic risk, but the management risk caused by the defect of system and organization. Therefore, the author promotes some policy advice about debt system supply, debt demand restriction and local debts management to prevent the local government debts risk.