金融创新、基本普尔分析与我国货币政策中介目标选择

Financial Innovation and Poole's Basic Analysis: A Study on the Intermediary Target of Monetary Policy of China

本文将金融创新因素纳入基本普尔分析之中,对货币政策中介目标选择问题进行了分析,并得出了两个基本结论:(1)在金融创新发展的初期,总需求冲击方差相对于货币需求冲击方差仍然较大,同时IS曲线相对LM曲线会变得更加陡峭,此时中央银行将优先选择货币供给量作为中介目标;(2)在金融创新的快速发展阶段,货币需求函数将变得极不稳定,以致于货币需求冲击远远超过总需求冲击时,无论IS曲线和LM曲线的斜率如何,选择利率充当中介目标将变得更加有吸引力。就我国而言,现阶段货币供给量作为中介目标还是较优的选择;长期来看,利率作为中介目标也会因金融创新而失效,一个可行的选择是通货膨胀目标制度。

We analysis the intermediary target of monetary policy with an combination framework of financial innovation and Poole＇s basic analysis and draw two conclusions. First, during the initial stage of the development of financial innovation, the variance of aggregate demand shock is still large relative to the money demand variance. At the same time, IS curve will become more steep than LM curve. So the optimal choice for Central Bank is to choose the monetary supply as its intermediary target. Second, in the high-speed stage of the development of financial innovation, the function of money demand will become very unstable so that the shock of money demand overwhelm that of aggregate demand. In spite of the slope of IS curve and LM curve, interest rate as intermediary target of monetary policy will become more attractive. As far as China is concerned, money supply as intermediary target is still an optimal choice at present. But in the long run, because of the development of financial innovation interest rate will fail to serve as intermediary target of monetary policy. Inflation Targeting will be an alternative.