西部可持续能源开发利用模型

Sustainable energy development model for western China

为了研究中国西部可持续的能源开发利用战略,建立了西部可持续能源开发利用模型。该模型以能源系统优化模型——MARKAL模型为内核,耦合了能源服务需求预测模块、水资源需求模块、污染物排放模块、经济分析模块和内生技术学习模块。应用该模型研究了2000—2050年间西部地区终端能源需求、一次能源供应、电力消费及构成、水资源需求以及污染物排放等。并分析了“能源东送”方案对西部能源系统的影响。结果显示,2050年中国西部终端能源消费量将达到12.43亿t,一次能源消费量将达到14.67亿t。预计“能源东送”方案实施后,一次能源消费、电力需求、水资源需求和污染物排放均会有较大幅度增加。

A sustainable energy development model for .western China was developed using MARKAL. The model integrates energy demand projections, water resources, pollutant emissions, and economics with a technology learning module. The model is used to study the final energy demand, primary energy supply, electricity consumption and its mix, water resource demand, and pollutant discharges for western China from 2000 through 2050. The model was also used to study the effect the ＂West-East Energy Transport Project＂ on the western China energy system. The model shows that the final energy demand increases to 1 243 Mtce with the primary energy demand increasing to 1 467 Mtce in 2050. The larger increases will occur in the primary energy demand, electricity demand, water resource demand, and pollutant discharges.