利用乘数法估计男男性接触者规模的调查研究

Size estimation of men who have sex with men using multiplier method

目的 估计某地区男男性接触者（MSM）规模，为该地区艾滋病防治工作提供基础信息。方法 研究采用乘数法，通过网站问卷调查和在MSM活动场所内、场所外对MSM的调查获得相关参数。结果 2004年8～10月，访问该网站的MSM中，经常到各类活动场所的人数为2905人，不经常去各类MSM活动场所的人数为18775人。2004年8～10月，在MSM活动场所内，MSM访问该网站的比例为26．2％；在活动场所外MSM访问该网站的比例为39．4％。该地区MSM人数为（2905÷0．262）＋（18775÷0．394）=58740人。结论 采用乘数法估计MSM的规模是可行的。

Objective To estimate the size of men who have sex with men（MSM） in a specific area so as to provide baseline information for HIV/AIDS prevention and control. Methods Multiplier method was sought. Website questionnaire survey and qestionnaire surveys among MSM inside and outside homosexual activity venues were carries out to collect necessary parameters.Results Among those who visited the specific website, 2 905 MSM visited homosexual activity venues frequently,and 18 775 MSM seldom visited such venues;26.2 % of the MSM inside the homosexual venues visited the website,and 39.4% of the MSM outside the homosexual venues visited the website from Aug to Oct,2004. The size of men who have sex with men was estimated as （2 905÷0.262） ＋ （18 775 ÷ 0. 394） = 58 740 persons. Conclusion It is feasible to estimate the size of MSM using multiplier method.