基本要素均衡汇率的逻辑结构与悖论——基于汇率杠杆属性对FEER的超越

Logic and Paradox of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates Model

本文从梳理基本要素均衡汇率学说(FEER)的内在逻辑出发,发现了FEER内在的逻辑悖论:以实现内外均衡为目标的均衡汇率只能在内部均衡和外部均衡分别实现平衡的情况下才能实现,FEER只能是“锋刃上的均衡”;这同时颠覆了FEER作为政策指南的初衷。FEER的逻辑悖论是由对汇率作用的认识造成的,本文基于汇率的杠杆属性提出了超越FEER的可能路径。

On the basis of analyzing the inner logic of FEER, the author discovers that FEER has Paradox. First, the equilibrium exchange rate which purpose is to make the internal and external equilibriums realize at the same time could actualize only when the internal and external equilibriums come true respectively and simultaneously. As the result, the FEER could only reach equilibrium on the blade. Second, the paradox overthrows the FEER＇s intention to be the direction to the policies. The paradox of FEER results from the understanding to the role of exchange rate. At last, the author puts forth a possible surpassing path to FEER based on the level attribute of exchange rate.