1980-2000年中国LUCC对气候变化的响应

The LUCC Responses to Climatic Changes in China from 1980 to 2000

基于中国1980-2000年气候数据及两期土地利用／土地覆盖(LUCC)数据,利用Holdridge植被生态分区模型、重心模型及土地利用程度模型,分析气候变化及人类活动对中国植被覆盖及土地利用的影响程度及变化趋势。1980-2000年间,中国大部分地区温度升高,降水增多。气候变化不仅影响了中国植被群落分区,更进一步影响了植被群落的生长状况;东北、华北、内蒙古高原等区域未利用土地型向草地和灌木生态类型转换,草地和灌木型生态类型向林地和耕地型转换;又因为1980-2000年间中国经济的发展,东部沿海区域城市乡村建设用地及交通用地的增多,使土地利用类型南农业耕地型向建设用地型发展,导致土地利用程度指数的升高。气候变化及经济发展的双重作用,导致中国土地利用程度重心20年来向东北方向移动了54 km,东西方向土地利用程度偏移强度,气候占81％,人类活动占19％,南北方向土地利用程度偏移强度,气候占85％,人类活动占15％。

Adopted with Holdridge Life Zone Model （HLZM）, Weight Centre Model （WCM） and Land Use Degree Model （LUDM）, climate data of China in recent 20 years and 2-period LUCC data covering China are used to analyze the impact degree and direction of changes caused by climatic changes and human activities to China vegetation covers and land use. In recent 20 years, the rise in temperature and increase in precipitation in most parts of China have influenced not only China＇s biome, but also growth conditions of Holdridge life zone deeply. In this period, variations in both precipitation and temperature in Northeast China, North China and the Inner Mongolia Plateau have improved living environment and led to the transformation of Nature Covered Ecological Type from unutilized land to grassland and shrubland types, grassland and shrubland types transformed to forest and arable land. Meanwhile, China＇s economic development in recent 20 years, as well as land use increment in rural and urban areas for construction and transportation purposes in eastern coastal zones have made Land Use Type developed from farmland to construction land, leading to increase in land use degree index. Thereby the dual impacts by climatic changes and economic development resulted in a shift of Land Use Degree Weight Centre northeastward by 54 km. With regard to Land Use Degree Excursion Intensity, in east-west direction, 81% is caused by climatic changes and 19% by anthropogenic impacts; while in north-south direction, 85% is caused by climatic changes and 15% by anthropogenic impacts.