中国潜在产出测算实证研究

Empirical Study on Estimation of China's Potential Output

在对中国潜在产出测算研究状况进行评介的基础上,分别使用H-P滤波法和生产函数法估算了中国1978—2004年间的潜在产出、产出缺口和潜在产出增长率。结果表明:(1)1978—2004年间,中国的产出缺口出现了波动水平正负交替的周期情形;(2)1995年以前产出缺口的波动幅度比较剧烈且较为频繁,1996年特别是1999年以后产出缺口的变化较为平缓;(3)1997年以后,虽然经济的增长率保持较高的水平,但是生产要素的实际利用水平却逐渐降低;(4)生产函数法得到的结果基本客观的反映了改革开放后,中国开始从计划经济向市场经济过渡到市场经济初步建立这一时期的生产要素使用情况。(5)根据H-P滤波法和生产函数法估算的潜在产出,得到1978—2004年间的平均潜在产出增长率分别为9.54%和9.67%。根据估计结果,在今后几年,通过适当的宏观调控,把中国的经济增长率稳定在8%～9%可能是一个较好的选择。

With the evaluation of current study on the estimation of China＇s potential output, this article estimates China＇s potential output, output gap and the potential output growth rate between the year of 1978 and 2004 by H-P Filter and Production Function Approach. The result shows that： firstly, the output gap of China demonstrates the classical cycle that the fluctuation level alternates in a positive and negative way between 1978 and 2004; secondly, the output gap fluctuates dramatically and frequently before 1995 and smoothly after 1996 especially after 1999; thirdly, since 1997, though the economic growth rate has maintained a high level, the actual utilizing level of factors of production has been declining gradually; fourthly, the results of the Production Function Approach basically reflect the utilization of factors of production since the reform and opening-up during which China has transited its economic system from planned economy to market economy and established the market economy; fifthly, according to the potential output estimated separately by HP filter and production function approach, the average potential output rate from 1978 to 2004 is 9.54% and 9.67% respectively. Accordingly, it is a much better choice to stabilize the economic growth rate of China at the level of 8% or 9% through the appropriate macroeconomic control in the following years.