油田开发效果综合评价方法新探

New Discussion on ComprehensiveEvaluation Method for Oilfield Development Effect

为提高已开发油藏的经济效益,及时有效地评价其开发效果是十分必要的。在建立科学、全面、系统的指标评价体系的基础上,以兼顾主观偏好和客观信息的综合赋权法为依据,提出将合理反映主观认知程度的层次分析法和客观反映指标重要性的相似权二者结合起来,通过偏好系数科学合理地确定出评价指标权重,然后尝试用未确知测度模型对油藏进行评价、排序,用置信度识别准则代替最大隶属度识别准则,减少误判。首次在辽河油区特殊岩性注水油藏的评价中取得了较好效果。与模糊层次评判、灰色聚类分析等评价模型比较,具有分辨率高、识别合理的优点,提高了开发效果综合评价的可信度。对其他驱动类型的油藏开发效果评价具有一定的借鉴作用。

It is necessary to evaluate the development effect punctually and effectively to get the utmost profit from the reservoir development.Analytical hierarchy process reflecting subjective cognition reasonably and similar weight reflecting index essentiality objectively should be combined on basis of a scientific ,completely and systemic index evaluation system.According to the comprehensive empowerment method taking both subjective preference and objective information in consideration,evaluation index weight can be ascertained scientifically and reasonably by preference coefficient.Then the reservoir can be evaluated and sorted on the basis of unascertained measure model and credible recognition is introduced instead of maximum subordinate recognition principle so as to reduce the misjudgement.This method has acquired considerable effect when first time being used in the evaluation of special lithology waterflooding reservoir in Liaohe oilfield and was considered to have the advantage of high resolving capability and reasonable distinguishability compared with other evaluation method such as fuzzy-analytic hierarchy process and grey cluster analysis method which can enhance the reliability of exploitation comprehensive evaluation and provide a good reference for the evaluation of other reservoir driven by other motivity.