中国资本流动风险预警研究

ON RISK ALERT OF CHINESE CAPITAL FLOW

借鉴FR早期风险预警模型的研究方法,建立适用于预测我国资本流动脆弱性风险的预警系统。我国从未发生过货币危机,在风险预警模型建立时,只能使用我国资本流动脆弱性的变化作为被解释变量。通过计量分析发现:外汇储备/GDP、外汇储备/M2、GDP增长率与我国资本流动脆弱性变化相关性最强,应当作为我国当前预防资本流动脆弱性恶化的重点检测指标。

With the help of FR early risk alert model, this paper builds a risk alert model for forecasting Chinese capital flow. Because money crisis is never happened in China, this paper uses frangibility of Chinese capital flow as the explained variable. The econometric analysis shows that the rate of foreign exchange reserve to GDP, the rate of foreign exchange reserve to M2, GDP growth rate are strongly related to frangibility. So they are the important index.