中国的铸币税与通货膨胀:1952—2004

Seigniorage-maximizing and Inflation in China:1952—2004

本文基于现金先行模型重新构建了我国的实际现金余额需求函数,并在实际现金余额需求函数的约束下,假定我国政府的目标是追求铸币税最大化,推导出了铸币税最大化的通货膨胀率和货币余额增长率的公式。在此基础上,探讨了铸币税征收与通货膨胀的关系,并利用我国1952—2004年的数据进行实证研究,结果表明,为了避免恶性的通货膨胀和最优化铸币税的征收,我国的货币余额增长率应当控制在22%—24%以下,通货膨胀率应当控制在11%—14%以内。

This paper constructed a money demand function based on the cash-in-advance model. In this setting, we infer the equatons of seigniorage-maximizing inflation rate and seigniorage-maximizing growth rate of money under the premise that government earn revenue through seigniorage-maximizing subjecting to the money demand function. We estimate the function according to the year data of China from 1952 to 2004. The result suggests that in order to maximize the seigniorage-revenue and avoid super-inflation, The money authority should eontrol the growth rate of money under 22—24% and control the inflation rate under 11—14% .