货币化、货币流通速度与产出——扩展的CIA约束与中国经验

Monetization,Velocity and Output:Modified CIA Constraint and China's Experience

本文从两个方面扩展了传统CIA约束:(1)消费品和资本品受货币约束的比例取决于货币化和信用化的发达程度;(2)货币交易频率受通胀率影响。这样能够在贴近中国现实的动态一般均衡框架下分析实际冲击与名义冲击对货币流通速度和产出的影响。理论模型中,综合考虑到投资和产出的变化时,货币化和信用化对货币需求和流通速度的影响并不确定,通胀率的上升也不必然导致投资减少或者货币需求下降。这有别于局部均衡分析以及传统CIA模型的结论。改革以来中国的经验数据也表明,尽管通胀率下降会降低流通速度,然而货币化进程并未导致流通速度的显著下降。货币化以及相关的金融制度变化假说不应成为流通速度下降的有力解释。

This paper modifies the traditional cash-in-advance （CIA） constraint in the following two ways. First, it allows only a fraction of the capital goods and consumption goods to be subject to the CIA constraint. The fraction is assumed to depend on institutional shocks, i.e., the changes of monetization and credit-enhancing transaction. Second, it allows the transaction frequency of money is influenced by inflation. Thus we can study the effects of real and nominal shocks on velocity and output in a general equilibrium framework closed to China＇s realities. When investment and output changes are considered in the theoretical model, monetization and credit-enhancing transaction have no determinate impacts on money and velocity, and inflation will not necessarily lead to lower investment or money demand. The results are different from those of partial equilibrium analysis or traditional CIA models. The empirical results validate the above theoretical predictions. Though lower inflation will reduce velocity, monetization will not reduce it significantly. Hence, the decline of velocity should not be explained solely by monetization and institutional changes hypothesis.