非线性动力学在宏观经济学领域中的运用——文献综述

Application of Non-Linear Dynamics in the Field of Macroeconomics:A Survey

本文概述了非线性动力学在宏观经济学领域中的运用。20世纪80年代以来,非线性动力学开始活跃于经济动态分析的舞台,这是打破线性分析范式的重要尝试。非线性分析经常会得出与均衡分析结果迥异的有意义结论:产出—就业系统在外部冲击下表现出非线性和非对称特征,在衰退和产出的长期增长之间存在着正反馈机制;宏观经济政策具有非对称效应;资本市场并非随机游走,混沌现象普遍存在。非线性动力学为中国宏观经济研究提供了一个新的思路和全新的视野。

This survey summarizes some uses of non-linear dynamies in the realm of macroeeonomics. Non-linear dynamics has flourished in the stage of dynamic economic analysis since the 1980s,it is an important attempt of breaking linear paradigm. Nonlinear analysis often comes to significant conclusions which differ from equilibrium analysis： output-enlployment system exhibits non- linearity and asymmetry under the outside shocks, the positive-feedback mechanisnl exists between the economic decline and the economic increasement. Macroeconomic policies have asymmetric effect on economy. Capital market is not random walk, chaos universally exists in the capital market. Non-linear dynamics provides a new train of thought for China＇s macroeconomic researchers.