油气勘探开发项目投资决策路径的设计

Design of the path of investment decision of petroleum exploration and exploitation projects

研究油气勘探开发项目投资决策路径的根本目的在于规避风险,以利润极大化为原则,兼顾社会目标,正确选择投资方向,合理安排投资规模,保证石油化工企业油气资源的持续安全供应和可持续发展,提高集团的竞争力。油气勘探开发项目具有明显的实物期权特性,传统的NPV方法已经不适应此类项目的评价与决策,本文结合中石化的实际,从企业目标和社会目标2个方面着手,提出了基于实物期权的油气勘探开发项目投资决策路径,从而丰富了项目投资决策的思路和方法。

The ultimate objective of studying the path of investment decision on petroleum exploration and development is to avoid risk and select a correct investment direction, arrange the rational investment scale and ensure sustained, safe supply and sustainable development of petroleum resources of petrochemical enterprises and raise the competitive ability of the enterprises in light of the principle of profit maximization and considering the social objective. The project of petroleum exploration and development has obvious real option characters and the traditional NPV method has not met the requirements for the assessment and decision making of this kind of project. Based on the actual conditions of Sinopec and from the corporative and social objectives, this paper propose a new path of investment decision on petroleum exploration and development, thus enriching the thoughts and methods about the decision on project investment.