摘要
用1971-2000年雷暴资料分析了运城市雷暴的时空分布特征;应用奇异谱分析、最大熵谱方法对运城建站较早的8个测站年平均雷暴日数时间序列进行了诊断分析,结果表明:运城年雷暴日数具有显著的长期趋势变化特征,还有3.6 a和2.8 a的显著振荡周期。还对年雷暴日数进行了预测。
Using the thunderstorm climate data in Yuncheng from 1971 to 2000, the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of thunderstorm are analyzed. The time series of annual average thunderstorm day at 8 stations are diagnosed by means of singular spectrum analysis （SSA） and maximum entropy method （MEM）. The results show that the thunderstorm days in Yuncheng have remarkable secular trend change, and have the oscillation period of 3.6 and 2.8 years. Annual thunderstorm day are predicted by using periodic signal.
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第5期38-44,共7页
Journal of Natural Disasters
基金
山西省科学技术发展项目(041092)
关键词
雷暴
气候特征
奇异谱
thunderstorm
climatic characteristics
singular spectrum
