中国大陆地区年最大平均风速的概率密度函数

Probability density function of yearly maximum average wind speed in mainland of China

根据中国大陆地区1951-2002年的实测风速数据资料,采用密度演化方法进行了各站点年最大平均风速的概率密度函数估计,给出了大陆地区年最大平均风速均值和标准差的等值线分布图。与常用的基于拟合优度检验的概率密度函数估计和统计量分析不同,所提方法不需要进行先验分布类型的假定,可以通过直接计算给出与基本数据经验分布函数符合得较好的概率密度函数与概率分布函数。对比研究表明,该方法给出的统计结果是可信的,具有工程实用参考价值。

Based on surveying data obtained in the mainland of China from 1951 through 2002, the probability density function of the yearly maximum average value of the wind speed is estimated through the probability density evolution method. In contrast to what is done in the widely used test-of-goodness-of-fit based statistical methods, a priori probability density function is not needed in the presented method. The probability density function that is directly obtained by the probability density evolution method accords well with the empirical distribution function. The investigations indicate that the probability density functions of the basic wind speed and the yearly maximum wind speed distribution are reliable and valuable in engineering practice.