我国粮食主产区尿素供需时空特征及市场调控思路

Space-Time Characteristics of Urea Supply and Demand in Main Grain-Producing Areas in China and thought on Regulation and Control by Market Forces

在总结前人研究的基础上,重点从季节和作物角度对我国粮食主产区尿素供需状况作了深入分析。研究结果表明,我国粮食主产区尿素全年的总体供应量大于需求量,但季节间和区域间供需却不平衡。3月和7月是尿素消费高峰期,易发生供应不足,而尿素消费和生产区域分布不一致导致消费旺季供需矛盾更加突出,是导致价格波动和运输困难的主要原因。针对尿素供需矛盾,对我国化肥产业的宏观调控策略提出了一些想法,以期为我国化肥产业和农业的健康稳定发展提供依据。

On the basis of summing up the study results of predecessors an analysis in depth centers on the supply and demand of urea in main grain-producing areas in China. The results obtained in- dicate that the total annual supply of urea is higher than its demand in the areas, but disequilibrium between supply and demand occurs in different seasons and areas. The peak period for urea consumption is in March and July, and shortage is liable to happen, while the distribution of urea consumption and producing areas differs, leading to the more pronounced contradiction between supply and demand in the peak consumption season, and this is the main reason for price fluctuation and difficulty in trans portation. In the light of contradiction between urea supply and demand, ideas are put forward on the tactics of macroscopic regulation and control of the chemical fertilizer industry in China, so as to provide a basis for the healthy and stable development of the chemical fertilizer industry and agriculture in China.