发展中国家的货币错配与汇率制度选择困境

Predicament between Currency Mismatch and the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime in the Developing Countries

货币错配是诱发发展中国家货币金融危机的一个重要因素,也加大了危机的解决成本。货币错配问题的形成是内外因素双重作用的结果,长期实行的“软”钉住汇率制度是其中的一个重要原因。发展中国家普遍遇到了货币错配与汇率制度选择的两难困境,僵硬的汇率制度为货币错配风险的累积提供了正向激励,加深了货币错配,货币错配程度的加深强化了汇率制度的“浮动恐惧”,必须采取有效措施走出这个困境。

Currency mismatch is one of the most important factors that cause monetary and financial crises in the developing countries, and increases the cost to solve crises. The problem of currency mismatch is the result from internal and external factors, of which one is the long- term soft pegging exchange rate regime. In general, the developing countries are confronted with the predicament between currency mismatch and the choice of exchange rate regime. On one hand, the rigid exchange rate regime is a positive incentive to accumulate currency mismatch risk and deepens currency mismatch, on the other hand, the deepening of currency mismatch intensifies the fear of floating on the exchange rate regime. The developing countries should take effective measures to get out the predicament.