青藏线关角隧道东口路堑边坡滑坡的预报

Forecasting a Landslide on the Slope at the East-End Cutting of Guanjiao Tunnel on Qinghai-Tibet Railway Line

青藏线关角隧道东洞口外为一高２０余米的路堑边坡，由于岩层破碎、地下水丰富，在线路左侧形成了一个中浅层边坡滑坡。通过对滑坡变形机制、变形性质的深入分析研究，根据滑坡变形的动态监测资料和各种滑前征兆，综合应用国内外滑坡预报的成功经验和理论，作出了准确的滑坡临滑预报，在线路封闭４小时后滑坡发生剧滑。由于预报准确，抢险准备工作充分，将滑坡灾害造成的损失减少到最低程度。

Off the eastern exit of the Guanjiao tunnel on Qinghai-Tibet railway line is a cutting over 20m in height. A slope landslide of mid-line layer formed at the left side of the track owing to the existence of broken rock layers and abundant groundwater. Based on the studr of deformation mechanism and properties and the analysis of monitored data and presliding signs in the landslide area, and taking into consideration the experience in and the theory for forecasting, a very close forecasting was made giving warning of an imminent sliding.A strenuous sliding took place 4 hours after the line has been closed.