摘要
首先采用各生长期有效降水对作物产量影响的敏感性系数作为计算权重基础,利用模糊聚类循环迭代方法对濮阳灌区多年降水资料进行聚类,在此基础上,应用R/S分析的原理和方法构造预测模型,计算了H指数,建立了R(i)/S(i)与i的关系式,对该灌区大气降水的变化趋势进行了检验和预测分析。结果表明:该模型简便、通用,对降水趋势的预测确实可行,对农业生产起到了较好的指导作用。
Firstly, this paper takes the sensitivity coefficient of valid precipitation in each growth period, which influences the crop output, as calculating weight foundation, and then utilizes fuzzy clustering iteration method to cluster the data of annual precipitation in many years of Puyang irrigation district. On this basis, by means of the principle and method of R/S analysis, this paper constructs the forecasting model, calculates the H exponent, and constructs the relation function between R（i）/S（i） for each growth stage. Then the change tendency of precipitation of this irrigation district is checked up and forecasted. The results show that the model is convenient and universal, and it is authentically feasible for the prediction of the precipitation tendency. So, the study provides guidance effect on agricultural production.
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2006年第10期20-23,共4页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
基金
河南省高校创新人才培养工程项目(HNCX2003-17)
关键词
大气降水
模糊聚类
预测
R/S分析
H指数
precipitation
fuzzy clustering
forecast
R/S analysis
H exponent
