汇率波动、货币错配与银行稳定:理论及经验分析

Exchange Rate Fluctuation,Monetary Mis-match and the Bank Stabilization:Theoretical and Empirical Analysis

伴随着经济的开放,汇率波动对银行经营的影响亦越来越大。本币贬值会改变企业和银行的资产负债状况,加剧银行危机。汇率波动与银行脆弱性的理论基础来自三种观点道德风险论、原罪论和承诺问题论。在本币升值的情况下,银行资产的货币错配可能引发银行危机。我国人民币存在持续的升值压力,随着资本项目的进一步开放,利益驱动下的货币错配将大量暴露在汇率变动的风险中。

With economic opening, exchange rate fluctuation greater influence bank operation steadily, domestic currency depreciation will change the asset - liabilities states of the enterprise and bank while aggravating the bank crisis. Theoretical base which exchange rate fluctuation influence the bank frangibility comes from three kinds of views： moral hazard, original sin and promising the question. In a situation that domestic currency appreciates, bank assets mis-match is possible of causing bank crisis. RMB is subsisted to the lasting appreciation pressure, with the opening further of capital item, large mounts of mis-match which comes from profits driving will expose to the risk of exchange rate fluctuation.