大城市小客车拥有率的预测及分析

The Prediction and Analysis of the Rate of Ownership of Light Passenger Train in Big Cities

本文从人均国民收入和小客车需求量的关系出发，利用比较分析法，借助国外小汽车发展所走过的道路及已有的数据和经验，对大城市的小客车发展进行初步估计，然后利用ｌｏｇｉｓｔｉｃ模型，对上海市未来小客车拥有率进行预测。本文在建模过程中同时研究了：①不同的收入分配；②城市的交通政策，包括汽车的价格、税收等；③城市的道路总量；④公共交通的政策及小汽车的控制等对小客车需求量的影响。

In this paper, basedon the relationship between the average income and demands for the light passenger train, the development of light passenger train in a big city with the aid of the development in foreign countries and the present data and experences, and the future rate of ownership of light passenger train in shanghai is predicted using Logistic model. Meanwhile the influences of the different income distribution, urban traffic policy including price and fax of automible, total of urban road and policy of public traffic and control of light passenger train on the demands for light passenger train are studied.