基于随机分析的滑坡稳定性二元评价方法

Dual evaluation method of landslide stability based on stochastic analysis

对利用随机分析方法建立安全系数与可靠性相耦合的滑坡稳定性二元评价体系进行了探索。利用随机分析方法可确定滑坡安全系数的分布形态,计算出最大可能安全系数下的滑坡破坏概率Pf,用最大可能安全系数和可靠性得出可靠安全系数来评价该滑坡的稳定性。在折减后的安全系数的极限状态中,根据典型的不同最大可能安全系数及相应的临界破坏概率,建立了二元滑坡稳定性分区,用于滑坡稳定性评价。研究实例表明:利用随机分析方法建立这种二元体系是可行的,可以更加精确和客观的对滑坡稳定性做出评价。

Dual evaluation system of landslide stability, which couples safety factor and reliability, was introduced in this paper. The stochastic analysis method was adopted to analyse the distribution of safety factor and the failure probabilities Pf of most likely factor was decided, therefore the reliable safety factor, based on safety factor and reliability, was obtained to appraise the landslide stability. From limit state of reduced safety factor, choosing canonical different maximum possible safety factors and their correspending critical failure probabilities to build the division chart of landslide stability. The results of research example have shown that dual system based on stochastic analysis was a feasible method and could give us a more precise and objective evaluation of landslide stability.