论气象类滑坡灾害的预报原理和方法

Discussion on the Prediction Theory and Method of Landslide Disaster Caused by Meteorological Change

从地质-气象耦合的角度进行分析,指出气象类滑坡灾害的产生机制主要是降水、温度以及大风等气象因素引起潜在滑坡灾害系统产生不可逆的自组织过程———形成“滑坡灾害系统”。这些气象因素参与地质过程,并成为这一自组织过程中十分活跃的关键因素;地质-气象耦合的自组织过程存在两个显著不同的阶段:自组织慢过程和自组织快过程,滑坡灾害主要产生于自组织快过程中。分析表明,不同的潜在滑坡灾害系统具有不同的自组织临界态,即使对于同一具体的潜在滑坡灾害系统,其自组织临界态所对应的气象要素临界值也不是一个固定不变的值,而是一个值域。总结了滑坡灾害气象预报的原理,论证了气象因素是滑坡灾害短期预报的关键问题,建立了具有鲜明物理意义的通用预报关系和模式;以潞水矿区为例,结合历史资料分析确定通用预报关系中的临界值,得到具体的滑坡灾害气象预报方法。

To analyze the landslide disaster from the angle of geology-meteorology coupling, the authors pointed out that the mechanism of meteorological landslide is an inconvertible self-organization-forming landsilde disaster system that primarily caused by precipitation, temperature and strong wind. These meteorological factors participate into geological process, and become active and major factors in the self-organization course. There are two different phases of self-organization, i. e. rapid course and slow course, landslide disasters mainly stem from the rapid one. The analysis indicates that different landslide latency system possess different self-organization state, even if toward identical and specific landslide calamity latency system, the corresponding critical value is not a invariable value, but a range. The prediction theory of meteorological landslide disaster is summarized. It is illustrated that weather factor is the key to forecasting landslide in a short time. The universal prediction model is set up. Take Lushui mining area as an example, the prediction method of landslide is obtained combined with historical data analysis to determine the critical value of universal prediction model.