兰州市耕地资源变化的社会驱动力研究

Studies on Change and Social Driving Forces of the Cultivated Land Resource in Lanzhou

土地利用／覆盖变化已成为当前全球变化研究的前沿和热点之一，而耕地的变化又是区域土地利用变化的核心类型，根据兰州市的统计资料，分析了1992-2002年该市耕地面积变化的趋势。运用主成分分析法对影响耕地面积变化的8个社会驱动因子进行定量研究，将其概括为人口经济因素和土地生产力因素，并建立了多元线性回归模型。

Land use and land cover change is one of the most important components and major causes to global environmental changes. The change of cultivated land is the core of regional land use change. Based on the statistical and survey data of Lanzhou city,the trend of cultivated land use and its driving forces from 1992 to 2002 are discussed. Then a quantity study is made on the eight chosen driving forces factors which affect change of cultivated land by using Principal Component Analysis. The result can be generalized as the growth of population and economy and that of land productive force. A linear multi-regression model is thus made in the end.