对武器装备体系效能评估的几点看法

Some opinions of effectiveness assessment for weapon system of systems

效能评估是武器装备体系优化的基础,但是武器装备体系效能评估还处于开始阶段,缺乏完整的理论体系.本文从现有文献中归纳出体系及武器装备体系的定义,提出将武器装备体系分为国家武器装备体系和作战武器装备体系,并给出各自的效能定义.接着对比分析静态和动态两类效能评估方法的特点,指出装备体系效能评估需要两类方法结合使用.最后说明了需要进一步研究的问题:包括武器装备体系及武器装备体系效能的概念;武器装备体系效能指标的选取;效能的综合;以及在体系动态效能评估中有关对人的行为建模问题、子模型的分辨率问题和固定想定的问题.

The effectiveness assessment is the base of the optimization of weapon system of systems（WSOS）. However lacking of perfect assessing theories, the effectiveness assessment for WSOS still lies in the exploratory phase. In this paper, the concepts of system of systems and WSOS are induced from the literatures. The idea of dividing the WSOS into national WSOS and operational WSOS is presented, at the same time their effectiveness is clearly defined. Through comparing static and dynamic assessing methods, it is pointed that the two kinds of method should combined in assessing WSOS. Finally, the questions needed for further studying are presented. The questions include putting forward the concepts of weapon system of systems and effectivehess of weapon system of systems, and the choice of Measures of Effectiveness （MOE） of weapon system of systems, and some questions during the course of assessing dynamic effectiveness of weapon system of systems, such as, modeling of human behaviour in the loop, level of detail and fixed scenarios.