城市轨道交通合理规模机理及模型分析

Demand Mechanism Model Analysis of Rational Scale of Urban Rail Transit Network

城市化进程加快,城市用地及经济规模扩大,居民出行强度和结构发生变化。交通需求的相对无限性和城市道路交通资源的有限性使人们关注城市轨道交通的发展。合理的线网规模不仅是长度,而且是线路运营里程、输送能力、区域范围的需求辐射效应及多元化公交的有效整合。本研究着眼城市居民出行需求的相关特性及城市未来发展趋势,结合城市交通发展战略,提出轨道交通线网规模需求的梯度效应、弹性效应、平衡效应和综合效应机理;通过城市经济承受力、环境资源容量等外部约束条件的综合筛选,确定城市轨道交通线网的优选规模方案;分析了相应的城市轨道交通梯度效应、弹性效应、平衡效应和综合效应规模初步匡算模式。为城市轨道交通线网规模分析提供一种思路和方法。

Along with the strong enhancement of urbanization, the urban zone and economy scale are unceasingly expanding; traveling intensity and modes have been dramatically changed. Such unbalance between the infinity of traffic demand and the limitation of traffic resources has forced people to transfer their focus from conventional road traffic to urban rail transit （URT）. The rationality of the URT networks scale presents not only length, but also integration of operation mileages, transport capacity, traffic demand and various public transportation interactions. Based on the characteristics of the residents traveling demand and urban planning strategy, the paper puts forward the demand mechanisms of URT networks, the gradient effect, elasticity effect, equilibrium effect and integration effect. Considering the restriction variables of the urban economy, environmental resources and etc. , the optimization scheme of the URT networks scale is evaluated in the paper. Moreover, the preliminary estimates of four corresponding networks scale models are also obtained. The paper provides the new idea and method for the analysis on the URT networks scale.