基于三角模糊数的长输管线故障树分析

Fault tree analysis of oil and gas pipelines with triangular fuzzy-number

利用模糊故障树分析法对长输管线系统进行分析,建立了长输管线系统失效故障树.由于缺乏足够的现场数据及实验数据,因此采用三角模糊数表示事件发生的概率,将模糊重要度分析的新方法-中值法引入长输管线系统的故障树分析中来,给出了计算方法及步骤,并用模糊重要度法对故障树基本事件进行排序.从而可以看出,为提高系统可靠性,应主要改善第三方破坏及管道初始和施工缺陷等几个因素.

With the fault tree analysis and fuzzy mathematic analysis method, the system of oil and gas pipelines was analyzed. And a fault tree was set up. In the fault tree analysis of oil and gas pipelines, due to lacking of the enough test-data and field-data, triangular fuzzy-number was used to design at the probability of the basic events in fault tree. A new method--Median method for analyzing fuzzy significance was introduced into the fault tree analysis of the pipeline system. The calculation method and procedure were presented in detail. Thus, it could be seen from the fuzzy probability ordering and classification that third party is destruction and initial as well as construction defect were comparably dangerous factors, which should be improved.