农村劳动力“剩余”与农村劳动力“转移”的理论与实证分析

A Theoretical and Practical Analysis about Rural Labor Force "Surplus" and Rural Labor Force "Transfer"

运用定性和定量相结合的分析方法,对农村劳动力“剩余”与农村劳动力“转移”的内涵进行了理论分析,运用统计方法和数学模型对吉林省农村劳动力“剩余”的数量和农村劳动力“转移”的数量进行了估算和预测,在此基础上对比分析得出“转移”的农村劳动力未必是“剩余”,“剩余”的农村劳动力未必就“转移”的结论,提出引导我国农村劳动力转移的途径。

Using the quantitative and qualitative method, this paper analyzes the connotation of the rural labor force ＂surplus＂ and rural labor force ＂transfer＂, evaluates and calculates the quantity of the rural surplus labor force and the rural labor force transfer by using the statistic methods and mathematics model, comes to the conclusion that the rural surplus labor forces may not transfer, and the transferred rural labor forces may not be the surplus ones. The author puts forward the road that leading the rural labor forces transfer, so as to guide the rural labor force transfer, alleviate the contradiction between the rural and urban, keep the society peace and promote economy development.