基于Bootstrap仿真的鱼雷系统可靠度置信下限

Calculation of Confidence Lower Limits for Torpedo System Reliability Based on Bootstrap Simulation

提出了一种通过鱼雷各部件可靠性试验数据来计算鱼雷系统可靠性近似置信下限的方法。在分析鱼雷系统可靠度的基础上,引入Bootstrap方法到可靠性统计分析中,运用模拟计算代替理论分析,以可靠度的经验分布函数代替真实分布,给出了鱼雷系统可靠度置信下限的近似解,并针对试验数据较少的情况,给出了2种不同的纠偏方法。通过数据模拟计算表明,用Bootstrap方法求得的置信下限值能满足工程应用的精度要求,特别是在样本量较小时,利用Ⅰ型中值纠偏能够得到满意的结果,说明了该方法的可行性和有效性,在复杂系统可靠性设计和分析中具有理论和工程应用价值,对于其他不服从指数分布的复杂武器系统的可靠度预计也同样有效。

System reliability of torpedo is an important element of torpedo performance and a vital parameter to judge torpedo＇s operational effectiveness. A method is presented to calculate approximate value of confidence lower limits making use of reliabihty test data of torpedo components. Based on the analysis of torpedo＇s system reliabihty, this paper obtains the approximate value of confidence lower limits of the torpedo＇s system reliabihty by introducing Bootstrap method to statistical analysis of reliabihty, substituting simulation for theoretical analysis, and substituting empirical distribution function of rehability for real distribution. It also gives two methods to correct the error due to less reliability test data. The simulation result indicates that Bootstrap method is feasible and effective in designing and analyzing comphcated system rehabihty. The obtained confidence lower limits can meets the need for the accuracy in engineering application. This method is also suitable for the reliability estimation of other complex weapon systems with nonexponential reliability distribution.