基于Logistic分析的我国上市公司财务预警区域研究——以北京、上海、江苏为例

Financial Early Warning Region Study Based on Logistic Analysis of Listed Corporation in China——Based on Beijing,Shanghai and Jiangsu

针对目前国内财务预警研究忽视区域因素对建模的影响,文章以北京、上海和江苏2004—2005年被ST的所有上市公司为样本,运用SPSS13.0统计分析软件,对三省市上市公司分区域、分行业进行了财务预警研究,分别建立了三省市上市公司的Logistic财务预警模型,预警识别率分别达到了100%、92.9%、100%,实证研究结果表明分区域建立的企业财务预警模型具有较高的判别准确率,有较高的研究价值。

According to the neglect of region factor of financial early warning study, this paper selects all companies in special treat of Beijing , Shanghai and Jiangsu from 2004 to 2005 as the training sample according to region factor and industry sorts. With SPSS 13.0 version, the logistic models of the three regions are established, with the accuracy of 100 %, 92.9 % and 100 %. The result shows that financial early warning region study has the higher accuracy and of high study value.