近50年汾河上中游流域径流对气候变化的响应分析

Response of Runoff in Mid and Upper Reaches of Fenhe River to Climatic Changes during the Last 50 Years

以汾河上中游干流水文站近50年的气象水文资料为基础,采用多元回归及敏感性分析方法,对径流、降水和气温三者之间变化规律以及区域水文对气候变化的响应进行了定量分析,结果表明气候变暖导致了蒸发的加剧,并一定程度上造成了汾河干流径流量的减少。预估暖干气候条件下引发干旱灾害的可能性将增强。

In order to study the response of runoff to climatic changes, the multiple regression analysis and sensitivity analysis were used to identify the changing trends between runoff, precipitation and air temperature. Based on the long-term measurements from the mid and upper reaches of the Fenhe River, the relationship between climate factors and runoffwas established and 25 climate-change scenarios were hypothesized. The results with quantitative analysis show that climatic warming has resulted in sharp increase of evaporation, and lead to the decrease of runoff in the main stream to a certain extent. Furthermore, the dry-and-warm climatic conditions may dramatically cause the probability of droughts in this area.