美国选民的相对理性

The Relative Rationality of American Voters

运用定量分析的方法对美国选民在总统选举中的政治认知进行实证分析,发现美国选民在总统选举年份比在中期选举年份更有可能认识到两个主要政党之间的差异。这一发现为安格斯.坎伯尔(A ngus C am pbe ll)所发现的政治认知起落现象提供了认知模式。每当在总统府中发生党派更替时,大多数美国选举人都会预感到总统选举中势均力敌的情况。美国选民的政治认知首先是由信息吸收和处理所决定的,党派性是第二位的因素。这一发现确认了心理学的信息处理看法,扩展了安东尼.道恩斯(A n thony D ow ns)的理性选择理论和V.O.基关于留意公众和粗心公众的分类。

By conducting a positive analysis on the political cognition of American electorate in the presidential elections with a methodology of quantitative analysis,it is discovered that American electorate is more likely to recognize the differences between the two major political parties during the presidential election years than in the midterm years. This discovery provides a cognitive pattern for the surge-decline phenomenon discovered by Angus Campbell. The majority of American voters can foresee a close race in presidential election whenever there is a change of party in the presidency. The political cognition of American electorate is fundamentally determined by absorption and processing of information, and partisanship is a secondary factor. This discovery confirms the information processing approach of psychology, and augments Anthony Downs＇ theory of rational choice and V. O. Key＇s classification of attentive public and inattentive public.