基于SD模型下的流域水资源-社会经济系统时空协同分析——以渭河流域关中段为例

A SD-based Spatio-temporal Synergy Analysis on Water System and Socio-Economic System in River Valley——A Case Study of Guanzhong Segment in Weihe River Valley

以渭河流域关中段为例,以SD方法分别建立PRD系统线性增长模型、反馈增长模型和调水耦合模型,并采用Venp le软件进行系统仿真,结果显示:基于政府规划目标的线性增长模型是社会经济高速发展模式,但区内水资源供给与需求之间的缺口会持续加大;反馈增长模型可根据流域内水资源承载力状况调整社会经济发展目标,但难以完成关中地区所承担的发展和带动使命;调水耦合模型引入了区外水资源,地区缺水状况得到明显改善,社会经济发展保持较高的增长速度,是解决关中地区PRD问题有效途径,而调水工程和社会经济之间的协同则是近期需要解决的关键问题。

The water resources and socio-economic system （PRD） in river valley is studied in this paper by system dynamics （SD）, and based on it the dynamic behaviors of PRD system in river valley are simulated under different conditions, which can be the basis of solving the problem of river valley PRD system. Taking Guanzhong segment of the Weihe River valley as an example, three PRD system models （the lineal-growth model, the feedback-growth model and the water diversion coupling model） are respectively set up by SD, and simulated by the Venple software. The lineal-growth model based on government planning objective is the pattern that society-economy can develop at a super-speed, but it can also continuously enlarge the gap between the demand and supply of water resources. The feedback-growth model could adjust to the target of socio-economic development according to the conditions of water resources carrying capacity within the river valley, yet it is difficult to fulfill the developing and driving mission that Guanzhong area takes on. The water diversion coupling model introduces water resources outside, by which the situation of water shortage can be improved clearly, also the socio-economic development can keep on increasing at a sustainable higher speed, so it is an effective way to solve the PRD problem in Guanzhong area, however, the synergy of water diversion project and society-economy becomes the critical problem to be solved at present.