城镇新旧养老保险模式中养老金水平比较研究——以2005年资料为依据的模拟分析

Comparison of the Pension Levels in New and Old Model of City's Public Endowment Insurance

人们普遍担心新型城镇基本养老保险制度中的养老金水平会有所降低,这直接会影响到城镇基本养老保险制度的可持续发展。文章借用生命周期理论和世代交叠模型理论的基本原理,以模拟测算的方式对此问题进行了必要的探讨和研究。其结论为:一是新方案的养老金水平比旧方案要低,养老金发放水平的总体差距比原来有所拉大,但新方案的结构可能更趋合理;二是男女之间养老金发放水平的差距将进一步拉大。根据这一研究结果,文章建议采取在同一代人之间和世代交叠之间两个层面上效率与公平的统筹兼顾策略,并提高女性退休年龄等措施来缩小差距,以保证基本效率基础上的社会公平。

The reduction of pension level in new model of city＇s public endowment insurance, which the public worries about, will directly affect the sustainable development of city＇s public pension. This paper studies these problems. As a result, firstly, the pension level in new model of city＇ s public endowment insurance will be lower than that in old model and secondly, the differences of levels of payment in pension will be widened between men and women. Finally, it gives some suggestions to solve these problems.